Futures Market:
Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2502 contract opened at 16,880 yuan/mt. After opening, it fluctuated around the intraday moving average, briefly touching a high of 16,915 yuan/mt and a low of 16,810 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 16,895 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt or 0.97%. The open interest of the most-traded SHFE lead 2402 contract decreased by 1,111 lots to 54,615 lots.
Last Friday night, LME lead opened at $1,981.5/mt, briefly touching $1,982.5/mt at the beginning of the session. It weakened during the Asian trading hours, hitting a low of $1,950/mt, but rebounded during the European session, closing at $1,966/mt, down $14/mt or 0.71%.
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In the Shanghai market, Honglu lead quoted a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2501 contract. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Tongguan and JCC lead also quoted a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2501 contract. After the SHFE lead opened, it continued to decline sharply, quickly breaking below the 17,000 yuan mark to hit a one-month low. Suppliers' panic sentiment increased, and most quotes shifted to premiums. Some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, while the circulation of cargoes self-picked up from production sites by smelters further decreased. Secondary refined lead enterprises also remained cautious with limited sales. Meanwhile, year-end factors such as account settlements and invoices persisted. Downstream enterprises mostly stayed on the sidelines, with inquiries increasing but transactions continuing to weaken.
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Lead Price Forecast for Today:
Macro side, the wavering expectations of interest rate cuts and the current lack of new directions have led to a slightly bearish macro sentiment, with gold and silver prices fluctuating. On the fundamentals side, this week, air pollution in regions such as Hebei, Henan, and Shandong has gradually eased, with Shandong already lifting smog restrictions and Henan following suit. The supply of secondary refined lead, previously impacted by environmental protection factors, is no longer the main imbalance in the market. Additionally, some crude lead production in Hunan is expected to resume gradually after meeting rectification standards post-New Year’s Day. However, the recovery of primary lead production may be delayed due to insufficient raw material stocking. After the New Year’s Day holiday, attention should still be paid to the actual resumption of production by lead smelting enterprises in various regions, as well as the recovery of downstream enterprises to normal operations and pre-holiday stocking by dealers after the resolution of year-end account settlements and inventory checks. The lead market's supply and demand decline may ease to some extent.
